China’s climate policy is neither black nor white<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is sometimes argued that European or Swiss climate action is unnecessary or ineffective due to China\u2019s perceived inadequate efforts. But this oversimplifies the complex nature of global climate politics and undermines the collective effort needed to address this critical issue.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n China\u2019s environmental policies present a complex and seemingly contradictory picture: on one hand, its efforts are considered <\/span>\u201chighly insufficient\u201d<\/span><\/a> as it is still highly dependent on coal and continues to plan new coal plants. On the other hand, China leads the world in green technology production and deployment with <\/span>record numbers in solar and wind power<\/span><\/a> in 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n China is responsible for 30% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 90% of the growth in CO<\/span>2<\/span> emissions since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015. It is still the <\/span>biggest greenhouse gas emitting country<\/span><\/a> and therefore its 2035 NDCs targets will significantly shape the world\u2019s climate future.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n Chinese efforts are important, but not yet enough<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n Xi Jinping announced the following two goals at the 2020 UN General Assembly (the so-called \u2018dual carbon goals\u2019):<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n 1) Emissions should peak by 2030<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n One might be elated to hear that nearly half of experts surveyed by a <\/span>climate thinktank<\/span><\/a> believe that China\u2019s CO<\/span>2<\/span> emissions have already peaked, or will do so this year. That\u2019s due to its \u2018<\/span>new three industries<\/span><\/a>\u2019, namely lithium-ion batteries (China provides more than 50% of the world\u2019s production), electric vehicles (approx. 50%), as well as a striking progress in its solar manufacturing (China\u2019s share in all the manufacturing stages of solar panels currently exceeds 80%).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n However, it\u2019s important to provide some context: China did meet its goal ahead of time, but it was not a particularly ambitious objective in the first place (compared to the <\/span>EU\u2019s GHG emissions peaking in 1990, and those of the US peaking in 2005)<\/span><\/a>. While it is a positive development, it\u2019s also a good example for ‘underpromising and overdelivering’.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n 2) Achieving carbon neutrality by 2060<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n This goal is significantly more challenging to achieve, especially considering the comparably late peaking of GHG emissions. China remains heavily reliant on coal<\/span>, with over half of its energy currently sourced from this fossil fuel.<\/span> Even if the share of <\/span>new coal mine permits has been reduced in 2024<\/span><\/a>, China has licensed many new mines in the past years, which make the transition towards carbon neutrality more costly and difficult (due to <\/span>stranded assets<\/span><\/a>). Despite solar power now being competitive with coal, China’s persistent reliance on coal stems primarily from concerns about <\/span>energy security.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Chinese local officials prioritize energy security to ensure the seamless functioning of the economy. While achieving this security without coal is technically feasible, it would require a complete <\/span>overhaul of infrastructure<\/span><\/a> \u2014 primarily the power grid \u2014 to enable broader electricity transmission across the country (see the <\/span>resolution for China\u2019s \u2018third plenum<\/span><\/a>\u2019 in 2024 mentioning the call to build a \u201cunified national electricity market\u201d), as well as significantly <\/span>improved energy storage systems<\/span><\/a>. Both of these measures demand substantial time and funding, but it remains unclear how highly the central government has prioritized these efforts.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n What to watch: What new targets will the Chinese leadership set for 2035?<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n Most experts<\/span><\/a> contend that China should aim for a persistent reduction of GHG emissions by at least 30% by 2035. This timeline leaves limited room for the country to achieve its carbon neutrality goal by 2060. From a policy perspective, this necessitates a rapid phase-out of coal, ongoing deployment of green technologies, and the establishment of non-carbon GHG targets \u2014 most notably, a significant reduction in methane emissions (which are currently <\/span>leaking from coal mines<\/span><\/a>, in addition to agricultural emissions).<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n As the <\/span>China Climate Hub by the Asia Society<\/span><\/a> puts it:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cDecisions on China\u2019s targets are under review amid a recent surge in emissions, heightened geopolitical tensions, and challenging economic headwinds. All these trends and factors complicate the decision-making process. But a rapid clean energy boom and <\/span><\/i>early signs<\/span><\/i><\/a> of a decline or plateau in emissions should give Beijing\u2019s leaders confidence in strong 2035 targets.\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n A nuanced look at China\u2019s environmental policies is not without merit. It remains to be seen what goals it will set for the next round of NDCs (if any) and how stringent it will follow its objective of carbon neutrality by 2060. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":68867,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"archive-status":[],"region":[],"custom-themes":[1952],"class_list":["post-80388","blog-post","type-blog-post","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","custom-themes-klima"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/foraus.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/blog-post\/80388","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/foraus.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/blog-post"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/foraus.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/blog-post"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foraus.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/68867"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/foraus.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80388"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"archive-status","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foraus.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/archive-status?post=80388"},{"taxonomy":"region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foraus.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/region?post=80388"},{"taxonomy":"custom-themes","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foraus.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/custom-themes?post=80388"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}