As the war in Ukraine continues, sources close to President-elect Donald Trump have discussed plans to freeze hostilities and create a demilitarised zone secured by European peacekeepers. What are the strategic recommendations for Switzerland in such a scenario?
Speculation on Trump’s Peace Plan
On November 28 President-elect Donald Trump nominated retired General Keith Kellogg as his Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia. He will be at the center of future negotiations on how to end the war. Interestingly, Kellogg has already laid out his plans – including a frozen conflict scenario. Thus, we have some blueprints for 2025.
Freezing the Conflict
In late November 2024, the war in Ukraine reached a new level of escalation. The Ukrainian army deployed Western-made long-range missiles capable of striking deep into Russian territory. Moscow responded by launching a new medium-range missile into Ukraine. Freezing the conflict in Ukraine could help to temporarily de-escalate such dangerous escalations and open the door for negotiations.
In a policy paper published in April 2024, Keith Kellogg suggested that the US should begin negotiations for a ceasefire and later a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. The US will continue to support Ukraine, but NATO membership for Ukraine would be delayed and Ukraine would receive some security guarantees. Temporarily, Ukraine would also have to give up some territory and use diplomatic means to regain all its territory. The conflict would likely become frozen at the current line of contact, depending on the outcome of negotiations.
Switzerland’s Potential Role in a Frozen Conflict
If these ideas were put into practice, Swiss expertise in mediating international conflicts will be in demand. Historically, Switzerland’s neutrality has positioned the country as a trusted actor in similar situations. In 1953, the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission (NNSC), the legal instrument to prevent hostilities on the Korean Peninsula, mandated Switzerland to monitor the demarcation line between North and South Korea. Even after more than 70 years, Swiss army personnel are still monitoring the ceasefire there.
Switzerland is well-placed to take on such a monitoring role again in a frozen conflict scenario in Ukraine. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) could also play a part in monitoring missions within the potential demilitarized zone. As a member state of the OSCE, Swiss diplomats and experts have a profound understanding of the organization’s tools for ceasefire monitoring and conflict management.
Additionally, Switzerland should consider its options for submitting an official candidacy for the chairmanship of the OSCE in 2026. In the months leading up to that, Switzerland should provide channels for dialogue. Of course, the main diplomatic efforts will most likely be made in a negotiation led by the United States. But the detailed work of the agreement – the technical details of monitoring a ceasefire agreement – could be led by Switzerland in smaller formats.
Switzerland might also want to reflect on its contribution to the OSCE. The country held the OSCE Chairmanship in 2014 and is therefore well-positioned to take on a leading role in 2026. As the example of Korea shows, Switzerland has more than 70 years of experience in monitoring a demilitarized zone and supervising a ceasefire in coalition with other states. This experience will be of great value in Ukraine. Switzerland’s investments in the coming months are also efforts to stabilise the region. At a time when federal spending must be carefully allocated, this is a cost-effective way to contribute to Swiss and European security.
Strategic Recommendations for Switzerland
A frozen conflict scenario with a demilitarised zone, as proposed by General Keith Kellogg, will require the efforts of all European states to support its monitoring – if agreed to by Ukraine and Russia. The US has already signaled that it does not want its military forces involved in any peacekeeping mission. Therefore, a unified approach by all European states will be essential for its success.
Beyond peacekeeping, Europe will also be tasked with supporting Ukraine’s reconstruction and strengthening its economic and institutional resilience. Military assistance will likely still be needed to deter future Russian aggression.
This highlights that in 2025, Switzerland and other European states must be prepared to support a possible ceasefire and the first steps toward a settlement. If not in 2025, negotiations will start at some point.
A fragmented or hesitant response risks undermining both Ukraine’s security and Europe’s strategic interests. Switzerland, which is not part of the European Union but is affected by changes in the European security environment, should offer its expertise in ceasefire monitoring, diplomacy and OSCE operations. If there is a discussion about Ukraine becoming a neutral country, Switzerland, as a neutral state, should also contribute its expertise on this issue.
Conclusion
Europe and Switzerland must prepare for the long-term consequences of a frozen conflict scenario and a demilitarised zone in Ukraine. With the new US administration, we can expect efforts toward negotiations in 2025. Whether these negotiations will succeed remains uncertain, but all wars eventually end. There is much work to be done, and Switzerland should not miss the opportunity to contribute its expertise. It is a small investment with potentially significant impacts on political, economic and human stability in Ukraine and in Europe. Switzerland is well-positioned to contribute and should act now.
