As the world gears up for a critical milestone in global climate action, many eyes are on China. February 2025 marks the deadline for countries to submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement for the years 2031-2035. China’s silence on when it will publish its next NDCs and what they will contain has raised some concerns in the international community. This blog analyses the current state of China’s climate policies and why it matters to take a more nuanced look at these developments.
China’s climate policy is neither black nor white
It is sometimes argued that European or Swiss climate action is unnecessary or ineffective due to China’s perceived inadequate efforts. But this oversimplifies the complex nature of global climate politics and undermines the collective effort needed to address this critical issue.
China’s environmental policies present a complex and seemingly contradictory picture: on one hand, its efforts are considered “highly insufficient” as it is still highly dependent on coal and continues to plan new coal plants. On the other hand, China leads the world in green technology production and deployment with record numbers in solar and wind power in 2024.
China is responsible for 30% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 90% of the growth in CO2 emissions since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015. It is still the biggest greenhouse gas emitting country and therefore its 2035 NDCs targets will significantly shape the world’s climate future.
Chinese efforts are important, but not yet enough
Xi Jinping announced the following two goals at the 2020 UN General Assembly (the so-called ‘dual carbon goals’):
1) Emissions should peak by 2030
One might be elated to hear that nearly half of experts surveyed by a climate thinktank believe that China’s CO2 emissions have already peaked, or will do so this year. That’s due to its ‘new three industries’, namely lithium-ion batteries (China provides more than 50% of the world’s production), electric vehicles (approx. 50%), as well as a striking progress in its solar manufacturing (China’s share in all the manufacturing stages of solar panels currently exceeds 80%).
However, it’s important to provide some context: China did meet its goal ahead of time, but it was not a particularly ambitious objective in the first place (compared to the EU’s GHG emissions peaking in 1990, and those of the US peaking in 2005). While it is a positive development, it’s also a good example for ‚underpromising and overdelivering‘.
2) Achieving carbon neutrality by 2060
This goal is significantly more challenging to achieve, especially considering the comparably late peaking of GHG emissions. China remains heavily reliant on coal, with over half of its energy currently sourced from this fossil fuel. Even if the share of new coal mine permits has been reduced in 2024, China has licensed many new mines in the past years, which make the transition towards carbon neutrality more costly and difficult (due to stranded assets). Despite solar power now being competitive with coal, China’s persistent reliance on coal stems primarily from concerns about energy security.
Chinese local officials prioritize energy security to ensure the seamless functioning of the economy. While achieving this security without coal is technically feasible, it would require a complete overhaul of infrastructure — primarily the power grid — to enable broader electricity transmission across the country (see the resolution for China’s ‘third plenum’ in 2024 mentioning the call to build a “unified national electricity market”), as well as significantly improved energy storage systems. Both of these measures demand substantial time and funding, but it remains unclear how highly the central government has prioritized these efforts.
What to watch: What new targets will the Chinese leadership set for 2035?
Most experts contend that China should aim for a persistent reduction of GHG emissions by at least 30% by 2035. This timeline leaves limited room for the country to achieve its carbon neutrality goal by 2060. From a policy perspective, this necessitates a rapid phase-out of coal, ongoing deployment of green technologies, and the establishment of non-carbon GHG targets — most notably, a significant reduction in methane emissions (which are currently leaking from coal mines, in addition to agricultural emissions).
As the China Climate Hub by the Asia Society puts it:
“Decisions on China’s targets are under review amid a recent surge in emissions, heightened geopolitical tensions, and challenging economic headwinds. All these trends and factors complicate the decision-making process. But a rapid clean energy boom and early signs of a decline or plateau in emissions should give Beijing’s leaders confidence in strong 2035 targets.”
A nuanced look at China’s environmental policies is not without merit. It remains to be seen what goals it will set for the next round of NDCs (if any) and how stringent it will follow its objective of carbon neutrality by 2060.
